Market predictors for the 2009 storage market suggest that the current economic downturn will result in significantly reduced activity. Specifically, companies will be tightening up expense budgets in the data center, which means there will be fewer dollars being spent on new equipment. As such, it appears any technological innovation may hit serious roadblocks trying to be adopted during this economic downturn.

The reality is that while spending may slow down, the demand for data will not. Bandwidth needs will continue to grow exponentially and, in order for storage networks to keep pace, new equipment acquisitions will be necessary. Rather than budget cuts reducing network capacity, network administrators will instead be challenged to do more with less. They will be more careful with their dollars and demand greater value when they do spend. Robustness, performance, bandwidth – these will all still be important considerations, but it is price that will determine sales. As a consequence, this economic downturn can be a golden opportunity for new technologies that successfully either reduce capital investment and/or eliminate operating expenses.

For FCoE to succeed in this climate, reducing cost is the key. While providing the advantages of a converged network bring many benefits to networks, if FCoE cannot seriously beat existing storage offerings on price, it will be slow to achieve traction.

I need to clarify that while I understand why the Ethernet Technology Summit did not succeed, I still am extremely disappointed in its demise.  I believe the Ethernet Technology Summit is an excellent model for a show.  The reality is that we don’t need so many different technologies to implement a storage or communications network.  It is possible – and efficient and cost-effective – to use Ethernet end-to-end.  In fact, Ethernet is clearly the best candidate for enabling the converged network across applications. 

Many industry shows and conferences focus on applications.  The strength of the Ethernet Technology Summit is that it was going to focus on Ethernet.  It would have also brought all the various flavors and forms of Ethernet together in one show.  This would be good for the industry, for many reasons.  It is a shame that the timing of the economic downturn made it economically unsound for its backers to proceed with the Ethernet Technology Summit.  This conference would have: 

• Provided a forum for developing a single language across Ethernet applications
• Brought engineers and network administrators together to share needs and requirements
• Enabled all interested parties to work together to make Ethernet technology as a whole more robust for all applications using Ethernet
• Highlighted the role and capabilities of Ethernet to network administrators, demonstrating to them the feasibility and reliability of how an end-to-end Ethernet implementation could meet their specific needs. 

When times get better, we should revisit this idea and give it another try.

The Ethernet Technology Summit was slated to be the first industry conference dedicated to just Ethernet throughout the networking space.  As a conference, it was intended to focus on new emerging Ethernet technologies in LAN, data centers, telecommunications, and high speed applications, to name a few, as well as serve as the industry’s first gathering for dedicated Ethernet discussion from data to communications to storage, from short to long distance, from node to core, and on and on.  It was a great idea to bring together discussions on Ethernet given that Ethernet technology is the best candidate for network convergence end-to-end. At other shows, like OFC or SuperComm, Ethernet is portrayed as a strong supporting co-star working with other technologies.  These shows are more application-focused, and so the ubiquity of Ethernet is seen through its presence at each of these events.  However, Ethernet’s dominance in the industry, as well as its ability to serve as a reliable end-to-end technology in many applications, can be easily overlooked. 

This is perhaps one of the key reasons for the Ethernet Technology Summit’s failure to launch.  With Ethernet already a major consideration at every other industry conference, many people might have felt that they didn’t need to also attend an Ethernet-only show.  In addition, the downturn took its toll on projected attendance, with companies cutting even core shows from their must-attend list.  If companies are deciding to forego OFC, for example, what chance does a startup show have of catching their attention?  It might have also been the Ethernet Technology Summit’s focus on technology that failed to attract more attendees.  After all, most people are used to the application-based show model. 

It’s a shame the Ethernet Technology Summit has been cancelled.  But this is more a statement of the economic climate and biases of our industry than about Ethernet.  Ethernet is as strong as ever, with engineers working around the world to further increase its reach, including its continued progress towards widespread deployment of FCoE.